NRL Finals Week 1 Tipping Guide

It's Finals time! Week One is set to deliver some thrilling matchups as teams gear up for a shot at the premiership. With everything on the line, here’s how I see the games unfolding.

Panthers vs Roosters

BlueBet Stadium, Friday 7:50 pm

The last two times these sides met in the Finals, the margin was just one point—both in favor of the Panthers. Penrith will be boosted by the return of Nathan Cleary, and they haven’t lost to the Roosters since 2019. The Roosters’ record against top 8 teams this season is less than stellar, winning just 3 out of 10.

For the Roosters to pull off an upset, they’ll need to find a way to unlock their attack and outscore Penrith, but with the Panthers boasting the best defense in the league, that’s easier said than done. If Penrith can frustrate them the way Canberra did, they should walk away with a victory.

Tip: Panthers
Margin: 1-12

Storm vs Sharks

AAMI Park, Saturday 4:05 pm

Melbourne and Cronulla have faced off three times in the Finals, with Melbourne winning two of those clashes, the exception being the 2016 Grand Final. Cronulla managed to get a win over the Storm in Melbourne earlier this year, but they’ve lost their last six Finals games.

The Storm, who are one of the favourites for the premiership, have won a number of close games this season—eight wins by 8 points or less. The good news for Melbourne is that Ryan Papenhuyzen is fit and ready to go after being rested last week.

Cronulla’s physical power game is impressive, but Melbourne’s consistency and Finals experience should see them edge this one out.

Tip: Storm
Margin: 1-12

Cowboys vs Knights

Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Saturday 8:00 pm

This will be the first time the Cowboys and Knights face each other in a Finals match. The Cowboys snuck past the Knights by 1 point way back in Round 2, and while the Cowboys lost their last Finals game in Townsville, they have a strong Finals record at home, winning 7 out of 8 games there.

The Knights have won just 1 out of their last 5 Finals games, and much of their hopes rest on Kalyn Ponga. Stop Ponga, and you stop Newcastle. If the Cowboys can score 20 points, they should come away with the win.

However, the Cowboys’ inconsistency throughout the year is a concern, while the Knights have also had their fair share of close losses.

Tip: Cowboys
Margin: 13+

Bulldogs vs Sea Eagles

Accor Stadium, Saturday 3:00 pm

The Bulldogs are back in the Finals for the first time since 2016, and they’ve got a strong record against Manly in Finals football, winning 4 out of their 5 meetings. It’s also a special occasion for Luke Brooks, who plays his first Finals game after 229 career matches.

The question is whether the Bulldogs’ defense can return to its best. Manly ran riot over them in Round 26, and they’ll be looking to replicate that performance.

Tip: Manly
Margin: 1-12

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There you have it—my tips for the first week of Finals action. Good luck with your picks, and enjoy the games!