NRL Fantasy Halves: Who wins at the start, middle & end of season?

The Game of Chance, Choice, and Calculation
Jack Wareham

When you think of fantasy guns, names like the high-scoring wizard Nathan Cleary, the destructive 70-minute Payne Haas, and the consistent force of Isaah Yeo come to mind. But have you ever considered how their performance varies throughout the season?

The Three Key Phases of the Fantasy Season

The fantasy season is divided into three key portions:

• Rounds 1–12: The focus is on maximizing earnings while still earning points.
• Rounds 13–19: This is arguably the most crucial part of the season, where your overall performance can be made or broken. The main objective here is to consistently field a complete team of the best players every week while saving trades. Disruptions like Origin matches and byes can complicate this phase.
• Rounds 20–27: In this final stretch, you should ideally establish your core lineup for the remainder of the season and focus on acquiring top-tier players for the decisive push towards achieving the coveted number one rank.

As any seasoned fantasy player knows, every NRL player experiences highs and lows each year. This article will outline the best times to own some of the top halfbacks in fantasy this season, including Nathan Cleary, Daly Cherry-Evans, Jahrome Hughes, and Nicho Hynes.

Nathan Cleary: The Fantasy Maestro

Over the past three years, Nathan Cleary has refined his game into a fantasy scoring masterpiece. Here's a breakdown of his performance across the three key phases:

• Rounds 1–12: Cleary is almost a must-have during this period. He typically plays 10 out of the 12 games, averaging an impressive 79 fantasy points.
• Rounds 13–19: This is the time to consider selling Cleary, as his involvement in Origin often results in a dip in his fantasy output. However, excluding an outlier game, he still manages an average of 88.1 points during this phase.
• Rounds 20–27: Caution is advised here, as the Panthers may rest Cleary to manage his ongoing hamstring issue. Over the past three years, he's played only 4 out of 8 games during this period, averaging 53.2 points. Yet, if we disregard a single outlier game in 2022 where he scored just 1 point, his average on the run home stands at an impressive 80 points across 5 out of the 8 completed games.

Nicho Hynes: The Consistent Performer

Nicho Hynes has quickly made a name for himself in fantasy circles since moving to the Sharks in 2022. Despite having only a two-year sample size compared to other halfbacks, his consistency is undeniable.

• Rounds 1–12: Hynes has only missed three games in the first 12 rounds over the past two years, maintaining an average of 72.6 points. His scoring can be influenced by the player at the 5/8 position, but he remains a valuable asset in the early season.
• Rounds 13–19: Hynes shines during the Origin period, playing in only one Origin match and maintaining an average of 73.8 points. He's a top choice for the mid-season phase when many top players are rested.
• Rounds 20–27: His average dips slightly to 68.7 points in the final stretch, but his playmaking ability, reflected in increased try assists and line break assists, ensures he remains a pivotal player.

Daly Cherry-Evans: The Ever-Present Force

Daly Cherry-Evans has been a stalwart in the NRL for the past three years, known for his durability and scoring prowess.

• Rounds 1–12: Cherry-Evans has never missed a game during this period and maintains an average of 60.5 points. His performances can vary significantly, but his reliability is unmatched.
• Rounds 13–19: During the Origin period, Cherry-Evans is exceptional, boasting an average of 76.3 points—the highest among all halfbacks. Even while participating in Origin, he has played 4 out of 7 games, setting career-high scores, including a 122-point game.
• Rounds 20–27: Cherry-Evans continues his strong form in the final stretch, missing only 4 games over the last three years. His average of 66 points makes him a reliable choice for the run home.

Jahrome Hughes: The Underrated Gem

Jahrome Hughes, representing the Melbourne Storm, may not be the top pick in fantasy, but his consistency and value make him a strong contender.

• Rounds 1–12: Hughes tends to start the season slowly, averaging 51.4 points. However, he remains a quality halfback, particularly in a stable team like the Storm.
• Rounds 13–19: Hughes' availability during the Origin period gives him a significant advantage over other halfbacks. He has never missed a game during this period in the last three years, with an average score of 54.6 points.
• Rounds 20–27: Hughes tends to deliver his best fantasy scores in the final stretch, despite some variability. His 81-point difference between his highest and lowest scores in this period highlights the risk, but his lower price makes him a valuable asset.

Player Selection Strategy

The data highlights the importance of knowing when each player shines. Sticking with one halfback for the entire season may not be the most profitable strategy for your team. Based on the analytics:

• Start the Year: Begin with Nathan Cleary, who is almost a must-have in the early rounds.
• Mid-Season: Depending on Origin and how teams are positioned on the NRL ladder, Jahrome Hughes or Daly Cherry-Evans are strong picks for the most points during this crucial phase.
• End of the Season: For a reliable player who will be a "green dot" every week, Daly Cherry-Evans' 66 average is a solid choice. If you're feeling adventurous, consider trading in Cleary—but proceed with caution.